Rookie QB Chronicles #3- ZACH WILSON
As I begin to discuss my observations and opinions regarding Zachary Wilson I want to separate this into two different parts. The first part of this piece will focus on everything I felt about Wilson BEFORE the Jets selected him with the second overall pick in the draft. I do not want these thoughts to come off with the bias of a New York Jet’s fan. Then I will go into everything I heard and learned since the Jet’s drafted him and share my thoughts on that as well.
So let’s start off with the kid that came out of nowhere from BYU in 2020. But did he come out of nowhere? I encourage everyone to go to YouTube and search for Zachary Wilson vs Hawaii. He was a 19 year old freshman coming in to play his first game following three crushing losses by BYU. The University of Hawaii was a 5-1 team looking to roll to their sixth win of the season. If you watch the tape capturing the majority of plays of the game, out of nowhere may seem far-fetched. Zachary Wilson immediately turned around the program at BYU.
As the Jets were on track to win the Trevor Lawrence sweepstakes I found myself rooting hard for each Jet’s loss. While I do not believe an NFL team should tank and lose games on purpose, it didn’t mean I couldn’t hope for it, if it was for the greater interest of the franchise. Nobody screamed louder for joy when Derek Carr hit Henry Ruggs III deep for a dramatic come from behind victory sending the Jets to a dismal 0-12. I wanted to send Lamar Jackson, our rookie CB who was signed as an undrafted free agent, a bottle of champagne. Hopefully the kid will recover and understand that he was put in a very unfair position by his defensive coordinator, who was fired not long after the game.
Well we all know how it ended. The Jets decided to beat the Rams, and then erased any hope of acquiring the first pick when they beat the Browns, who were restricted to a depleted roster due to Covid. This was around the time I started thinking about other options. Keeping Sam Darnold was a depressing thought in my mind. I was not a believer in Sam having the potential to become our long sought out “Franchise Quarterback.” I feel bad for the kid, and I like him, but a great player shows flashes of their greatness regardless of who is around him. I am not saying he can’t win with the right players and coaches around him, I just don’t think he is that game changing piece we have been waiting for since Broadway Joe stepped away from the game.
For most of the season the runner up pick was Justin Fields according to almost every draft board. I was not thrilled about this option because I believe there is a large gap separating Trevor and Justin. I was tired of hoping a guy was going to pan out, I wanted to know. As the season went on, and the Jets played themselves out of the Trevor sweepstakes, another name emerged. The name was Zachary Wilson. Desperate and suddenly having to pin my hopes somewhere new, I began to look into this kid from BYU. It didn’t take long for me to get swept away. His numbers were awesome. No question. But that is not what made me start to bubble with excitement. That rush of adrenaline came when I watched the tape.
There are different ways a person can define “accurate.” One is to simply look at the completion percentage. A quarterback’s completion percentage is one of the key stats to look at when evaluating a prospective quarterback. But it is only a simple formula that represents how many attempted passes actually result in completions. I think accuracy is more complex than that. I am 50 years old, out of shape, and bald, yet can step into a college football game and complete a pass to a wide open receiver. The real question is where is the ball being placed? Does the receiver have to break stride to make the play? Does the receiver have to alter their positioning and compromise yards after the catch because the pass was not placed well? Are the completed passes all from the safety of the pocket or can the QB throw on the run while being run down? I looked at Zachary’s tape carefully to answer these questions.
Unlike some of the other quarterbacks I have analyzed tape of, Zachary WIlson threw into tight windows on a regular basis. He did not require his receivers to have over a step of space from their defender. Not only was he able to complete the pass to his receiver, he was able to place the ball in a spot where only his receiver, and not the defender, could catch the ball. This explains the low rate of interceptions in spite of the fact the kid is not afraid to thread the ball into tight spaces. This is something that translates to the NFL when jumping up from the college level.
In addition to throwing from the pocket with great accuracy, what makes Zachary special is his ability to throw accurately on the run. He is able to process and follow the progression of the play while on the move, quickly plant his feet and release, and hit a receiver in stride. He executes plays like this routinely. This allows him to extend plays and provide more opportunities for his receivers to get open.
The argument that Zach will not adjust to the NFL because of a cream puff schedule simply does not have merit. There are reasonable concerns about his limited experience in big games and big situations. However, these are common concerns for any college quarterback, and not evidence a prospect will fail. What should be noted is that tight coverage is tight coverage no matter what level of competition you are facing, and Wilson proved he didn’t need his receivers to be wide open in order to complete a pass.
It did not take me long to become excited about the opportunity the Jets would have in the upcoming draft. I felt that Wilson closed the gap on Trevor Lawrence and jumped ahead of the other prospects coming out in 2021. I believed while Trevor was still the obvious number one selection, Zach Wilson was the obvious choice at number two. The problem was not everyone felt as strong about it. Some of the Jets community was still behind the idea of keeping Sam Darnold and trading down for more picks. Even worse was the talk of trading all of our draft capital for Deshaun Watson, assuring we could be the team that wastes his talents with no surrounding support. All of this talk was kryptonite to my ears. I began to have visions of Atlanta taking Zachary Wilson and winning multiple championships while we stayed in Jets’ hell.
When we finally traded Sam Darnold I knew I was in great shape. All that was left was believing Joe Douglass could see what was so obvious to me. Zachary WIlson was the 2nd best QB prospect on the board. And the gap between him and the others was bigger than the gap between him and Trevor. That was when my favorite YouTube commentators would drive me up the wall saying they would be okay with whatever Joe decided. No GreenBean! No O’Leary! I found myself screaming on a regular basis. It is not okay if we take Fields! No!!!!!!!!!!
As we moved towards the draft one more obstacle threatened Zach’s arrival to New York. GreenBean made a clever point in response to all the Zachary Wilson hype that had taken off in the weeks before the draft. What if Jacksonville buys into it all and grabs WIlson? The moment those words came out of GreenBean’s mouth I realized just how much I believed in Wilson. I realized this when the tiniest thought we may get Trevor actually felt like a punch to my stomach. Later, GreenBean admitted the same thing. While you have to take Trevor if you have the opportunity, we were all “all in” on Zack.
Any worries I had that the Jets would opt towards another prospect faded after Zach’s Pro Day. He caught the attention of the entire sports world. The passes he made that day got more coverage around the county than I’d ever seen another player recieve. Even the usually hard to read Joe Douglass could not hide his excitement when answering questions about Zachary Wilson. It became obvious to me, and most of the sports world, that Zack was going to become a New York Jet.
Now we move into the 2nd part of my piece. The draft came and went and we all learned the New York Jets are going to lift Zachary Wilson to stardom and fame. I write that with complete confidence because I feel completely confident in this young man, and the organization he is surrounded by. Zachary Wilson has the highest ceiling of any QB in the 2021 draft. None of the other prospects come close to him in arm talent. I believe his ceiling is based on this attribute more than any other. While he may not have the highest floor, and may prove unable to adjust to the speed of the NFL game, he has the talent to be the best of the bunch.
Zachary showed up to voluntary OTAs and then mandatory minicamp. While many will insist that nothing you do in shorts matters, Wilson certainly didn’t do a single thing to raise a concern that selecting him was a mistake. The news of his great flashes in camp were not simply from his coaching staff or teammates, his praise came from the most skeptical people in attendance, the New York Jets media. We got to hear about and eventually see insane passes that were perfectly placed to well covered receivers. His few incomplete passes and interceptions were mostly the result of dropped and deflected balls. He was described as looking like a verteran quarterback playing well.
The most encouraging part of this feedback was the source. This was not the organization telling fans what they wanted to hear. This commentary was coming from the media. Each day the press was invited into camp to watch practice, the reviews of Wilson grew stronger. The most negative review they made was when he wasn’t as good on a Thursday, as he had been on the previous Tuesday. The media was quick to remind us it was still a good day overall, just not as strong as he had been prior. There was a report he threw 7 TDs in 15 attempts in the red zone. It is hard not to get excited when you hear about results like that, especially when Wilson’s reaction was to hit the film room and work harder on it.
Of all the positive reports that came out of camp, the most telling about Zach’s progress were the statements being made by the coaching staff. It is quite common for the media to come into camp and observe a rookie quarterback struggle. Especially early on in voluntary OTAs and mandatory minicamp. These camps take place only weeks after the rookies are drafted. It is typical to see rookies struggle and make a lot of mental mistakes. In Zach’s case it was quite the opposite. Instead of having to defend his poor play to the press by pointing out the new system he was learning, coach Salah actually had to control the hype, and praise his work ethic.
In summary, Zachary Wilson has the arm talent to be very special in the NFL. He has a high quarterback IQ and is willing to work as much as needed to succeed. In addition, his teammates are already expressing their respect for him as a leader, and spending time with him off the field. So far he has been everything that was advertised and more. To anyone who doubts him because he played for BYU against lesser opponents, I point out and ask, What would someone with the talent of Wilson do if you plugged him into the program at Alabama? I think he is going to show everyone what would have happened, but at the NFL level. Championships!
Interested in seeing what all the fuss is about? Here is a great link to some of Zachary Wilson’s highlights. Take a close look at where he places the football.
The SacmanNFLReport (Jeremy Krevat)