Rookie QB Chronicles #4
It is hard to write about Trey Lance without taking a closer look at the San Francisco 49er organization and fanbase. Hopefully, this will help explain how Trey ended up in San Francisco, and what led San Francisco to trade the hefty price of 3 first round picks to acquire the 3rd pick in the 2021 draft. Was Trey Lance even on their radar when they made the trade? This is something that will most likely never be proven or disproven unless someone in the organization writes a book, but let’s take a deep dive and see if we can get some insight into why the 49ers did it.
Well, if you gauge the fanbase, the answer might become a little clearer. The fan base in the Bay Area of California understands the value of a great quarterback. First Joe Montana, then the combination of Joe Montana and Steve Young, and finally Steve Young, all amounted to an impressive run of wins and championships. Between 1982 and 1995, the organization raised the Lombardi trophy five times. That amounts to a lot of time in Disney World, and since then, San Francisco has been searching for the next quarterback to lead them back to the top of the NFL mountain. Just under two years ago, they almost made it; Almost.
When Jimmy Graroppolo was made available by New England, the 49ers jumped. The fans were excited. They were even more excited when Jimmy led them on a run of victories to end what had been a horrendous season. Then came the contract. Everyone all over the Bay Area believed they had found the answer. Some hailed him as the next Tom Brady. The hype continued to build until a series of unfortunate events unfolded. Jimmy missed Emmanuel Sanders for the go ahead touchdown with 1:34 left on the clock in the 4th quarter of Super Bowl LIV. This was followed by an injury in the 2020 season taking the team out of contention. All the excitement of the fanbase, and apparently the organization, was gone.
The celebration of fans over the trade and signing of the revered quarterback transformed into disappointment and frustration of the quarterback prospects the team let slip away. Some will point out the lost opportunity to sign Kirk Cousins. Some point out that Deshaun Watson could have been drafted. There are even talks that they could have made a move and gotten Josh Allen in the 2018 draft. So you can start to understand the urgency the organization may have felt when they decided to move up in the 2021 draft. They were not going to take any chances of missing out on one of the top prospects.
After weeks of speculation, and being one of the biggest stories in the NFL approaching the draft, San Francisco selected Trey Lance. No doubt they recognized that the ceiling for Trey is as high as any quarterback in the draft. His ability to run with the football is scary if you are an opposing defense. He is strong and extremely quick. He has a powerful arm, and when he is accurate he looks like a superstar. His ability to scramble and launch missiles to his receivers can make him a dominant quarterback. He may even force opposing teams to keep a dedicated defender to spy him: He is that dangerous.
In contrast, while perhaps boasting the highest ceiling in the draft class, he also is simultaneously the biggest risk in the group, and is the most believable to be a complete bust. This is not just because he has had moments where he looked really bad passing the ball, but also because he simply has provided the least evidence that he has the instincts and accuracy for his skills to translate to the NFL.The talent is undeniable, but also potentially meaningless if he is unable to read a defense, or visualize how a play is progressing in time to make the best decisions.
Trey has shown flashes of his talent in OTAs. He completed a deep pass to Kittles that made every jaw in attendance drop. The reaction to his physical stature is consistent. He looks like a beast. He is dynamic and catches everyone’s attention when he is on the field. He is also said to be brilliant in the film room. He shows a deep understanding of his offense and what the defense is doing on tape. This is probably the primary reason he has improved at the quarterback position since the day he stepped under center. He is a great student of the game. This bodes well for his chances to play to his ceiling and avoid ending up on the floor.
There is a lot of talk among the coaching staff about Trey showing a great ability to learn from his mistakes. There are different ways to interpret that information. The optimists would say he is continuing to grow and is showing his ability to learn and make the adjustments needed to be successful. Some that are more pessimistic choose to focus on the mistakes he is learning from, and harp on them. The realists remember that he is just a rookie, only drafted a few months ago, and can go either way.
Not only is he a rookie, but out of the entire quarterback class, he is the most universally agreed to be a developmental pick. Trey was on a predominantly rushing offense at North Dakota State and did not make nearly as many passing attempts as he would have made in a more traditional offensive scheme. This is not a reason to think he will fail in the NFL. It is just an explanation of why he might need more time to develop than the other quarterbacks in his class.
There is going to be a challenge in taking the necessary time to develop Trey Lance. As much as the organization ensures us that Jimmy Graroppolo is going to start the season, many of the team’s fans believe and expect Trey to win the starting job in training camp. This expectation creates some potential problems for San Francisco. If they do not start Trey Lance and then get off to anything but a stellar start to the season, there will be a public outcry for Trey to come in and play. Bringing the rookie into play too soon can be dangerous to his development, but it is not like the fanbase is going to be patient.
The reality is that the 49ers and the fanbase believe, and rightfully so, that they are a win now team. They do not consider the move to a new quarterback a rebuild. This is the 5th year of their rebuild and the fanbase wants results now. Last year was a wash due to injuries, they have all the talent to win now. This is the way the fanbase sees it, and this is why there will be tremendous pressure on Trey Lance if he steps onto the field. If he struggles early, a lot of second guessing may take place long before it is warranted. It would not be a fair or good scenario for this young player.
It will be impossible for Trey Lance not to be reminded of the price the organization paid to obtain him if he gets off to anything but a great start. This is the reality when you are the 3rd pick a team traded up to get. The good news is he will have a great supporting cast around him, along with very good coaching. This at least gives him every opportunity to realize his potential. Will he though? Will Trey Lance develop into a great franchise quarterback? I believe he absolutely has the talent to do just that. The question will really be whether he has the instincts to read the field and adjust to the NFL game. But isn’t that the challenge for all incoming quarterbacks? I think so.
The SacmanNFLReport (Jeremy Krevat)